In emergencies, high-stakes decisions often have to be made under time pressure and stress. To support such decisions, information from multiple sources needs to be gathered and processed quickly. The available information tends to be temporally and spatially variable, uncertain and sometimes conflicting, leading to potential biases in decisions. To address this issue, we propose a Bayesian network-based method, called ERIMap, that is tailored to the complex information landscape in emergencies. The method enables the systematic and rapid processing of heterogeneous and potentially uncertain observations and draws inferences about key variables of an emergency. It reduces complexity and cognitive load for decision makers. The output of the ERIMap method is a dynamically evolving and spatially resolved map of beliefs about key variables of an emergency, which is updated each time a new observation becomes available. The ERIMap method has the advantage that it follows a very general principle that can be easily transferred to other applications. Therefore, in addition to a case study illustrating the method of emergency response triggered by a gas leak accident at a chemical plant, an outlook on possible applications in the field of security will be given.
The Terrorism Risk Assessment, Modelling and Mitigation Seminar Series (TRAMMSS) is a virtual seminar series focused on technical topics related to terrorism risk assessment, and modelling, including blast modelling and response; IEDs; vehicles as weapons; CBRN; big data for risk assessment, security and screening; and associated mitigation measures.
Speakers
Dr Daniel Lichte is Head of the Resilience and Risk Methodology Department at the Institute for the Protection of Terrestrial Infrastructures at the German Aerospace Center (DLR). He conducts research in the fields of infrastructure resilience and risk management with a special focus on physical security. Daniel Lichte is a lecturer for risk analysis in security at the University of Wuppertal.
After studying mechanical engineering at the Ruhr University Bochum, he completed his PhD at the University of Wuppertal on the topic of physical security assessment. Here he worked on the development of a model for the assessment of the vulnerability of infrastructures to physical attacks.
In the field of physical security, he and his team work with infrastructure operators to develop practical methods for assessing and configuring security systems. His speciality is the consideration of uncertainties and the optimisation of appropriate solutions under boundary conditions.
In resilience research, Daniel Lichte and his department are working on operationalising resilience. In particular, he develops methods for monitoring and predicting scenario developments in the event of a crisis.
