This seminar will give an overview of the main terrorism risk modelling platforms that are used in the insurance market today: AIR, RMS (PTM) and Sunstone. Each model approaches the projection of terrorism loss in a different, if broadly similar manner. These differences allow for substantial differences in the outputs and resulting outlook for terrorism for the modelled portfolios, demonstrating a lack of a unified accepted approach to the subject matter. Using a probabilistic event set and target database, these models seek to project losses to portfolios of value resulting from terrorism in the form of Average Annual Losses (AAL) – the expected losses on a yearly basis – as well as various return periods, which indicate the maximum expected loss over a given time period. The intention of the seminar is to present and summarise the different approaches to threat and loss calculation that each of these models take, rather than to examine their differences in great and specific detail.
The Terrorism Risk Assessment, Modelling and Mitigation Seminar Series (TRAMMSS) is a virtual seminar series focused on technical topics related to terrorism risk assessment, and modelling, including blast modelling and response; IEDs; vehicles as weapons; CBRN; big data for risk assessment, security and screening; and associated mitigation measures.
Speakers
Jolyon Mitchell is a Vice-President at Guy Carpenter, the reinsurance arm of Marsh McLennan Companies. For the last 7 years, he has worked in Terrorism Analytics, focussing on the development and implementation of modelling solutions for the insurance and reinsurance markets. Specifically, he has worked to expand and refine the data inputs into modelling products and solutions, and designing new systems to evaluate political violence risk for clients. Jolyon earned a degree in Economics and Geography (International) from the University of Leeds and Shanghai Jiao Tong University - his ongoing doctorate, sponsored by Marsh McLennan Companies, seeks to enhance the precision of loss projection technology for Terrorism insurance, as well as unearth new and impactful variables that have yet to be accounted for in the field.
